Tea Auctions Ending 09 October 2026
Colombo’s all-elevation public-auction average fell to $3.82 per kilo for 6-7 October, down six cents from $3.88 for 29-30 September, according to Forbes & Walker’s published dollar series, which is single-source and not independently corroborated. Mombasa moved the other way: EATTA’s whole-auction average rose one cent to $2.22 per kilo on 5 October, from $2.21 on 28 September. Different auction coverage means these price levels do not reflect tea quality.
North India’s official CTC Leaf & All Dust observation labeled 10 October was INR 206.14 per kilo, versus INR 203.76 on 3 October. At a constant 9 October exchange rate, that translates to approximately $2.13 versus $2.11 per kilo, up two cents. The Saturday label’s trading-period alignment remains unconfirmed, so this is a dated comparison rather than a confirmed Friday-week result.
Indonesia’s numerical average remains unverified. Van Rees reported fair demand in Jakarta, with cancellations limiting the main broken grades and 14% of invoices unsold; that percentage does not reflect kilograms. Colombo’s better Western teas drew selective support despite the lower aggregate. For traders, these differences favor checking grade availability and dated comparisons before treating any regional average as an executable buying price.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Colombo’s single-source, not independently corroborated average fell six cents to $3.82 per kilo for 6-7 October versus 29-30 September.
- Mombasa’s whole-auction average rose one cent to $2.22 per kilo on 5 October, versus $2.21 on 28 September.
- North India’s 10 October-labeled observation reconstructs to $2.13 versus $2.11 per kilo on 3 October at constant FX; trading-period alignment remains unconfirmed.
- Jakarta’s numerical average remains unverified; Van Rees reported cancellations limiting the main broken grades and 14% of invoices unsold.
- Colombo’s selective support for better Western teas coexisted with a lower aggregate; check grade availability before treating averages as buying prices.
Sources: Forbes & Walker Sale 40 report, 13-14 October 2026, public-auction averages for 7 October and 30 September | Forbes & Walker Sale 39, 6-7 October 2026, market commentary, printed pp 1-2 | Tea Board of India 2026 weekly prices, North India CTC Leaf & All Dust, observations labelled 10 and 3 October | European Central Bank euro reference rates, 9 October 2026, USD and INR rows | EATTA historical whole-auction statistics, Sales 39-40, 28 September and 5 October 2026; preserved retrieval 31 October | Van Rees revised Week 41 Green Market Report, 8 October 2026, pp 1-3
Price Averages at Major Auction Centers
Colombo (Sri Lanka)
In Colombo, the all-elevation public-auction gross average was $3.82/kg for Sale 39 on 6-7 October, ↓ −$0.06/kg versus Sale 38 on 29-30 September ($3.88/kg), on Forbes & Walker’s published USD series.
The 13-14 October report’s table labels the observations 7 October and 30 September: LKR 1,246.67/kg versus LKR 1,267.54/kg. These are the closing dates of the respective two-day auctions. The published dollar buying-rate series is retained for both observations; its individual FX dates are not disclosed. A second publisher’s comparable historical average was not obtained, so the single-source limitation remains. Later Sale 40 trading is excluded from this week’s narrative.
Market Tone: Forbes & Walker reported good general demand and selective gains for improved Western teas, while several low-grown categories weakened; grade support did not prevent the overall average from declining.
North India (Kolkata / Siliguri / Guwahati)
In North India, the CTC Leaf & All Dust observation labeled 10 October reconstructs to approximately $2.13/kg, ↑ +$0.02/kg versus 3 October ($2.11/kg), using constant FX at 9 October’s ECB cross-rate.
The official table now supplies INR 206.14/kg for 10 October versus INR 203.76/kg for 3 October, replacing the earlier report’s stale data cutoff. The table’s Saturday label is not independently mapped to trading dates, so it is not asserted as a verified Friday-week result. ECB quotes INR 108.3965/EUR and USD 1.1206/EUR on 9 October, implying 96.730769 INR/USD. Applying that rate to both prices gives USD 2.131070 and 2.106465/kg, a difference of USD 0.024604/kg. This constant-FX reconstruction isolates local-price movement, not observed historical dollar movement; the FX date precedes the current label by one day.
Market Tone: Van Rees reported support for North Indian CTC teas maintaining quality, while medium dust was irregular and often easier; this commentary does not determine the aggregate’s trading dates.
Mombasa (Kenya / East Africa)
In Mombasa, EATTA’s whole-auction CTC and orthodox average was $2.22/kg for Sale 40 on 5 October, ↑ +$0.01/kg versus Sale 39 on 28 September ($2.21/kg).
The preserved official historical series resolves the sale dates and reports 6,514,504 kg sold in Sale 40, including 67,421 kg orthodox. Sale 39 sold 6,382,808 kg, all CTC. Thus, the whole-auction average includes a changing product mix. Van Rees’s broker all-auction hammer series reported $2.22/kg for both sales. The official whole-auction comparison replaces that earlier broker-based flat comparison; the series are not averaged or spliced. Official offered weights are unavailable, preventing a weight-based clearance calculation.
Market Tone: Van Rees described mixed grade and origin movements, with dust averages improving while BP1 eased; a higher whole-auction average does not imply uniform grade performance.
Indonesia
In Indonesia, the reporting-week auction average and change versus the week ending 2 October remain unverified because we could not obtain a reproducible dated numerical aggregate.
The revised Van Rees report dated 8 October describes Jakarta trading but does not provide a reproducible numerical aggregate in its market text. Its chart does not establish a sufficiently readable sale-level value with verified weighting and date mapping. No price is inferred from demand commentary or selected grades; both a dated aggregate and a comparable preceding observation are required.
Market Tone: Van Rees reported fair demand, cancellations limiting main broken grades, and prominent local buyers and packers; the 14% unsold invoice share is not a kilogram clearance measure.
Benchmark Snapshot
Colombo — $3.82/kg, Sale 39, 6-7 October; ↓ −$0.06/kg versus Sale 38, 29-30 September ($3.88/kg); published gross USD series, single-source, not independently corroborated.
North India — approximately $2.13/kg, label 10 October; ↑ +$0.02/kg versus 3 October ($2.11/kg); CTC Leaf & All Dust constant-FX reconstruction at ECB 9 October cross-rate; trading-period alignment unconfirmed.
Mombasa — $2.22/kg, Sale 40, 5 October; ↑ +$0.01/kg versus Sale 39, 28 September ($2.21/kg); EATTA whole-auction CTC and orthodox series.
Indonesia — No weekly average and change versus week ending 2 October.
Market Direction
Colombo declined, and Mombasa edged higher on their respective published series. North India’s dated constant-FX comparison rose, but its trading-period alignment remains unconfirmed. These findings do not establish a synchronized four-market trend.
Liquidity
EATTA reports 6,514,504 kg sold at Mombasa Sale 40 versus 6,382,808 kg at Sale 39; sold weight alone does not measure clearance. Van Rees reported about 108,000 packages offered, 90,000 sold and 18,000 unsold, alongside 16% unsold; the rounded counts do not reproduce that percentage exactly. Neither these package figures nor Jakarta’s invoice measure establishes kilogram clearance or distressed selling.
Sources: Forbes & Walker Sale 40 report, 13-14 October 2026, public-auction averages for 7 October and 30 September | Forbes & Walker Sale 39, 6-7 October 2026, market commentary, printed pp 1-2 | Tea Board of India 2026 weekly prices, North India CTC Leaf & All Dust, observations labelled 10 and 3 October | European Central Bank euro reference rates, 9 October 2026, USD and INR rows | EATTA historical whole-auction statistics, Sales 39-40, 28 September and 5 October 2026; preserved retrieval 31 October | Van Rees revised Week 41 Green Market Report, 8 October 2026, pp 1-3 | Van Rees Week 40 Green Market Report, 1 October 2026, p 1
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Costs & Currency
The Week 41 cost environment combined higher energy exposure with modest, measured depreciation in Sri Lanka and Kenya, leaving margins dependent on contract currency and payment timing. CBSL’s commercial-bank average middle rate at 9.30 am was LKR 330.94/USD on 9 October versus 330.68 one week earlier, a 0.08% rise in local-currency units per dollar. CBK reported KES 129.94/USD on 8 October versus 129.71 on 1 October, a 0.18% rise. FBIL’s 1 pm reference rate was INR 96.623/USD on 7 October versus 96.4348 on 6 October; that 0.20% daily move is not a verified weekly comparison. These different rate conventions do not support an origin vulnerability ranking. Depreciation can raise local receipts from dollar sales while increasing imported-input and dollar-debt costs.
CBSL’s Brent benchmark futures quotation rose to $103.37/barrel on 9 October from $102.65 on 2 October, up $0.72; the contract maturity was not specified. Separately, the World Bank’s 2 October Pink Sheet recorded September Brent spot at $116.8/barrel versus August’s $90.9, a 28.49% monthly rise, not a weekly futures comparison. Sri Lanka’s weekly prime lending average rose 12 basis points to 11.16%; this is a banking benchmark, not every trader’s borrowing rate. Route-specific freight, insurance and current packaging quotations were not verified. A fixed delivery charge per kilogram could absorb more of a lower-priced tea’s proceeds, but the available evidence does not quantify that effect. Mombasa’s reported unsold packages show incomplete absorption; they do not establish distressed selling.
Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Weekly Economic Indicators, 9 October 2026, prime lending, oil futures and FX tables | Central Bank of Kenya Weekly Bulletin, 9 October 2026, pp 1-2 | European Central Bank euro reference rates, 9 October 2026, USD and INR rows | World Bank Pink Sheet, 2 October 2026, August and September Brent spot monthly averages | Van Rees revised Week 41 Green Market Report, 8 October 2026, pp 1-3
Signals (Quarter)
Current reporting-week sources indicate divergent grade conditions and unresolved delivered-cost exposure through 9 January 2027, rather than a defensible global tea-price corridor. Currency settlement, replenishment and actual shipping quotations are the decisive variables.
- FX dispersion — LKR and KES weakened modestly on their dated weekly measures; reprice imported commitments if depreciation accelerates.
- Auction clearance — Mombasa’s rounded package totals leave unsold stock; require comparable sold and offered weights before inferring tighter absorption.
- Crop trajectory — Colombo brokers reported lower low-grown intake but maintained intake elsewhere; verify subsequent production before predicting a national shortage.
- Buyer concentration — Jakarta participation favored local buyers and packers; buyer shares remain unavailable, so concentration and inventory motives are unquantified.
- Cost pressure — September spot energy rose, and Sri Lankan prime lending tightened; test delivered margins against actual freight and financing terms.
- Quality support is selective; verified crop and clearance changes, rather than demand adjectives alone, should determine whether supply or costs alter buying urgency.
Sources: Forbes & Walker Sale 39, 6-7 October 2026, market commentary, printed pp 1-2 | Van Rees revised Week 41 Green Market Report, 8 October 2026, pp 1-3 | World Bank Pink Sheet, 2 October 2026, August and September Brent spot monthly averages | Central Bank of Sri Lanka Weekly Economic Indicators, 9 October 2026, prime lending, oil futures and FX tables
Outlook (Six-Month Horizon)
Available reporting for the target period is insufficient to establish a firm six-month base case through 9 April 2027. Selective quality support could persist if replenishment stays uneven, while improving supply or weaker destination orders could reduce realizations. Neither an inevitable rise nor a return to a historical price level is supported; no quantitative corridor is assigned.
The cost-risk layer runs both ways: lower future energy quotations could ease some exposure, while currency depreciation, financing terms, or route surcharges could offset that relief. The Pink Sheet records historical commodity observations, not a six-month tea forecast. Contract renewal and inventory timing determine pass-through. A fixed shipment charge differs from a percentage insurance charge, so model their effects on lower-value tea separately.
Structural Signals
Input costs — Higher September spot energy raises exposure; inventory and contract renewal can delay its effect on individual producers and packers.
Exporter discipline — Selective grade support is observed, but seller resistance is not quantified; verify withdrawals before asserting defended price floors.
Retail pass-through — Tea-specific retail transmission is unverified; test any delayed pass-through hypothesis against shelf prices, promotions, and contract renewal dates.
Risk Factors
FX shifts — Faster LKR, KES, or INR depreciation could change receipts and imported costs; monitor matched rates and hedged settlement dates.
Freight disruption — Route-specific disruption could raise charges or delay delivery; require carrier advisories and revised quotations before assigning a premium.
Demand contraction — Reduced destination orders could weaken replacement buying; test the scenario against order volumes and comparable clearance, not isolated price declines.
Keep coverage conditional on executable landed costs and replacement needs. A sustained change in crop availability and sold volumes would most directly overturn this cautious assessment.
Sources: Van Rees revised Week 41 Green Market Report, 8 October 2026, pp 1-3 | World Bank Pink Sheet, 2 October 2026, August and September Brent spot monthly averages | Central Bank of Sri Lanka Weekly Economic Indicators, 9 October 2026, prime lending, oil futures and FX tables | Central Bank of Kenya Weekly Bulletin, 9 October 2026, pp 1-2
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