Auctions Ending 23 October 2026
Mombasa prices rose, while Colombo’s fell. Mombasa’s whole-auction average was $2.30 per kilo at the 19 October sale, up 5 cents from $2.25 on 12 October. EATTA’s figures cover CTC and orthodox tea. Brokers reported good overall demand, though some grades sold better than others. Buyers from Pakistan and Egypt were active, helping sustain buying interest.
Colombo’s all-elevation public-auction average was $3.73 per kilo for 20–21 October, compared with $3.86 for 13–14 October, a decline of 13 cents. These are Forbes and Walker’s published dollar averages, released in their 27–28 October report. Low-grown teas continued to find buyers, but high- and medium-grown liquoring leafy teas became harder to sell as the auction progressed. Better orthodox rotovane teas still attracted a premium.
North India saw no sales due to festival holidays, so there was no weekly CTC Leaf & All Dust average to report. In Indonesia, pre-Jakarta auction cancellations left only 2,120 packages on offer, mostly secondary and off-grade teas. Van Rees reported steady-to-firm prices for orthodox and CTC teas, with 14% of invoices unsold, but no verified overall average was available. Buyers should review the teas offered and the average price.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Mombasa’s whole-auction average, covering CTC and orthodox tea, rose to $2.30 per kilo on 19 October from $2.25 on 12 October, gaining 5 cents.
- Colombo’s published dollar average fell to $3.73 per kilo for 20–21 October from $3.86 for 13–14 October, down 13 cents.
- North India’s festival holidays meant no sales and no weekly CTC Leaf & All Dust average.
- Jakarta offered 2,120 packages, mostly secondary and off-grade teas; 14% of invoices were unsold, and no verified overall average was available.
Sources: EATTA historical statistics, Sales 41–42, 12 and 19 October 2026, retrieved 30 October | Forbes and Walker, 20–21 October report, pp 2 and 21 | Forbes and Walker, 27–28 October report, p 13, averages for 14 and 21 October | Ceylon Tea Brokers, Sale 41 averages for 14 and 21 October | Van Rees Green Market Report, 22 October 2026, pp 1–2
Price Averages at Major Auction Centers
Colombo (Sri Lanka)
In Colombo, prices averaged $3.73/kg for Sale 41 on 20–21 October, ↓ −$0.13/kg versus Sale 40 on 13–14 October ($3.86/kg), on Forbes and Walker’s published all-elevation public-auction series.
Forbes and Walker’s 27–28 October report supplies the historical averages for both sales. Ceylon Tea Brokers corroborates the corresponding rupee totals: LKR 1,221.10/kg versus LKR 1,261.66/kg.
Market Tone: Low-grown teas continued to find buyers, while high- and medium-grown liquoring leafy teas weakened as the sale progressed. Better orthodox rotovane teas retained a premium.
North India (Kolkata / Siliguri / Guwahati)
In North India, the Week 43 CTC Leaf & All Dust average and change versus Week 42 are unavailable because festival holidays interrupted auctions and Van Rees reported no northern sale. Van Rees’s 22 October report records the holiday break. The Tea Board of India table reviewed on 30 October contains observations only through 10 October; an earlier price is not carried forward as Week 43. No reporting-week dollar average or numerical change is assigned.
Market Tone: The festival break left no northern auction result to assess; this is a missing observation, not an unchanged price.
Mombasa (Kenya / East Africa)
In Mombasa, prices averaged $2.30/kg for Sale 42 on 19 October, ↑ +$0.05/kg versus Sale 41 on 12 October ($2.25/kg), on EATTA’s published whole-auction series covering CTC and orthodox tea.
EATTA’s historical sale data give the whole-auction figures for both dates. Sale 42 includes 6,402,299 kg of CTC and 68,652 kg of orthodox tea. Van Rees reports a CTC-focused broker average of $2.29/kg versus $2.26/kg; the official CTC baseline is $2.25/kg. The official whole-auction series is used consistently here, without mixing broker and official observations. No currency conversion is needed.
Market Tone: Pakistan and Egyptian buyers were active, with good general demand. Prices varied across grades despite the higher overall average.
Indonesia
In Indonesia, the Week 43 auction average and change versus Week 42 remain unverified because no dated numerical aggregate with defined coverage could be established.
Van Rees’s 22 October report describes Jakarta trading but supplied no numerical aggregate, exact auction date, or sale identifier. No usable 2026 Week 43 aggregate was obtained from the Indonesia Tea Board or KPBN.
Market Tone: Cancellations before the auction reduced the offering to 2,120 packages, mostly secondary and off-grade teas. Orthodox and CTC transactions were described as steady to firm, with 14% of invoices unsold.
Benchmark Snapshot
Colombo — $3.73/kg; Sale 41, 20–21 October; ↓ −$0.13/kg versus Sale 40, 13–14 October ($3.86/kg); published all-elevation public-auction USD series.
North India — N/V — not verified for Week 43 CTC Leaf & All Dust; no northern sale reported; change versus Week 42 unavailable.
Mombasa — $2.30/kg; Sale 42, 19 October; ↑ +$0.05/kg versus Sale 41, 12 October ($2.25/kg); EATTA whole-auction CTC and orthodox series.
Indonesia — N/V — not verified for Week 43; no dated numerical aggregate with defined coverage; change versus Week 42 unverified.
Market Direction
Colombo was down, and Mombasa was up against the previous week’s comparable sales; North India had no reported sale, and Indonesia’s average-price direction remains unverified.
Liquidity
Jakarta’s unsold share was 14% of invoices in the 22 October report versus 25% in the 15 October report; these invoice-based figures are not kilogram clearance rates.
Sources: Forbes and Walker report 27–28 October 2026, historical averages for 14 and 21 October, p 13 | Ceylon Tea Brokers Sale 41 averages for 14 and 21 October 2026, all-elevation totals | EATTA historical statistics, Sales 41–42, 12 and 19 October 2026, whole-auction and component records, checked 30 October | Forbes and Walker report 20–21 October 2026, Colombo commentary p 2 and Mombasa Sale 42 p 21 | Tea Board of India 2026 weekly prices, North India CTC Leaf & All Dust table through 10 October, checked 30 October | Van Rees Green Market Report 22 October 2026, pp 1–3 | Van Rees Green Market Report 15 October 2026, Jakarta invoice clearance p 2 | Indonesia Tea Board Jakarta auction-price archive, no usable Week 43 observation
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Financials & Forecast
The Week 43 cost environment brought higher oil exposure without a broad currency cushion for tea exporters. Sri Lanka’s commercial-bank average middle rate moved to LKR 332.35 per USD on 23 October from 331.16 on 16 October, a 0.36% depreciation. Kenya’s CBK-published daily rate was KES 129.91 per USD on 22 October versus 129.81 on 15 October. India’s ECB reference cross-rate was INR 94.95 per USD on 23 October versus 94.96 on 16 October, broadly unchanged. These are different published rate bases, not synchronized market closes. A weaker local currency can increase receipts from dollar sales while raising imported-input and dollar-debt costs; contracts and hedges determine the net effect.
EIA’s Europe Brent spot FOB price rose to $128.30 per barrel on 23 October from $119.33 on 16 October, a gain of $8.97; these are daily spot quotations, not futures settlements. The World Bank’s September fertilizer index edged up to 147.0 from 146.4 in August, with 2010 equal to 100; it does not measure an individual grower’s bill. Tea-route freight, insurance, and financing quotes were not verified. A fixed delivery charge per kilo would take a larger share of a lower-priced tea’s selling price. Jakarta’s invoice-based clearance improved, but that does not rule out financial distress across auctions.
Sources: CBSL Weekly Economic Indicators, 23 October 2026, FX p 13 | CBK Weekly Bulletin, 23 October 2026, pp 1–2 | ECB reference rates, 16 October 2026 | ECB reference rates, 23 October 2026; INR/USD cross-calculation | EIA Europe Brent daily spot FOB, 16 and 23 October 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet, 2 October 2026, September fertilizer index p 2 | Van Rees 15 October 2026, Jakarta invoice clearance p 2 | Van Rees 22 October 2026, Jakarta invoice clearance p 2
Signals (Quarter)
Current reporting-week sources indicate no clear common tea-price direction for the three months ending 23 January 2027. Uneven auction demand, weather and oil-supply risks favor separate assessments by origin and grade. The September fertilizer index offers background on inputs, not a forecast of farm costs. Changes in harvests, repeat buying and actual delivery quotes will determine whether margins improve.
- FX dispersion — Sri Lanka’s rupee weakened modestly; Kenya and India changed little on the rates checked; further depreciation could raise imported costs.
- Auction clearance — Jakarta’s unsold invoices fell to 14% in the 22 October report from 25% on 15 October; monitor repeat clearance.
- Crop trajectory — Van Rees reported higher harvesting west of Kenya’s Rift; monitor factory intake before assuming larger auction arrivals.
- Buyer concentration — Pakistan and Egyptian buyers supported Mombasa’s 19 October sale; without buyer shares, their participation does not quantify concentration.
- Cost pressure — Higher Brent spot prices flag fuel exposure; freight and insurance effects on tea margins still require route-specific quotations.
Quality and buyer support remain important, while larger harvests or higher delivered costs could change the result for individual teas.
Sources: Van Rees 22 October 2026, pp 1–3 | Van Rees 15 October 2026, Jakarta p 2 | Forbes and Walker 20–21 October 2026, Mombasa Sale 42 p 21 | World Bank Pink Sheet, 2 October 2026, September fertilizer index p 2 | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, 6 October 2026, oil-supply assumptions pp 4–5
Outlook (Six-Month Horizon)
Available reporting for the target period supports a base case of uneven tea-price moves and continued cost exposure through 23 April 2027, provided buying remains selective, and fuel supplies remain constrained. This is a conditional assessment, not a price corridor. The week’s contrasting grade performance and Kenya’s changing harvests leave room for both firm prices in sought-after teas and weaker prices elsewhere.
EIA’s 6 October outlook forecast Brent spot averages of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $87 in the second quarter of 2027, assuming gradual recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows. That offers possible fuel-cost relief, not a measured saving for tea businesses. September’s firmer global fertilizer index also leaves local purchase costs uncertain; contracts, inventories and transport quotes will govern any relief.
Structural Signals
Input costs — September’s global fertilizer index edged higher; growers’ costs may respond later, depending on purchases, inventories and local supplier prices.
Exporter discipline — Jakarta’s pre-auction cancellations reduced availability, but do not prove resistance to lower bids; check withdrawals and accepted prices separately.
Risk Factors
FX shifts — Further LKR, KES or INR depreciation could lift imported costs and dollar-debt service; monitor matching-date rates alongside hedge terms.
Freight disruption — EIA identifies constrained Middle Eastern oil routes; watch fuel surcharges and actual tea-route quotes rather than assume every shipment is disrupted.
Demand contraction — If higher delivered prices reduce consumer or trade buying, auction support could weaken; monitor repeat orders and comparable unsold shares.
The outlook would improve if oil flows recover and delivery quotes ease; a sustained loss of repeat buying would invalidate the assumption of continued selective support.
Sources: Van Rees 22 October 2026, pp 1–3 | World Bank Pink Sheet, 2 October 2026, September fertilizer index p. 2 | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, 6 October 2026, forecasts and assumptions pp. 4–5
