Tea Auction Price Averages | Week 44 | Costs & Currency | Forecasts & Risks

By Dan Bolton | Tea Biz Blog | Podcast

Mombasa’s broker-reported main and secondary auction average slipped to $2.28 per kilo for Sale 43 on 26 October, down from $2.29 for Sale 42 on 19 October. Colombo’s latest verified all-elevation public-auction average was $3.73 per kilo for 21 October, compared with $3.86 on 14 October, down 13 cents. That single-source Forbes & Walker dollar series is not independently corroborated, and the 27–28 October average remains unverified.

North India returned from festival holidays to strong demand, with better-liquoring CTC teas attracting higher bids. Its Week 44 Tea Board CTC Leaf & All Dust aggregate remains unverified, so the trading commentary provides no numerical regional change. Colombo’s sale also showed differences within the market: selected teas found support, while several leafy categories eased. Neither account supports assuming every grade moved with an average.

Indonesia’s weekly aggregate remains unverified. Van Rees reported that 46% of Jakarta invoices were unsold, compared with 14% in its previous report; these figures are invoice counts, not kilograms. Cancellations also reduced availability. For growers and traders, check the tea offered and accepted before using a regional average to set a buying price.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Mombasa’s broker-reported average fell one cent to $2.28/kg from $2.29/kg for Sales 43 and 42.
  • Colombo’s single-source, not independently corroborated average fell 13 cents to $3.73/kg from $3.86/kg on 21 versus 14 October; Week 44 remains unverified.
  • North India resumed trading after festival holidays, but its Week 44 CTC Leaf & All Dust aggregate remains unverified.
  • Jakarta’s unsold-invoice share rose to 46% from 14% in successive Van Rees reports; Indonesia’s weekly aggregate remains unverified.
  • Check actual offerings and accepted bids before treating a regional average as a buying price.

Sources: Van Rees Green Market Report, 29 October 2026, pp 1–3 | Van Rees Green Market Report, 22 October 2026, pp 1–2 | Forbes & Walker Sale 42 report, 27–28 October 2026, pp 1–2, 6, 13 and 18 | Tea Board of India 2026 weekly CTC Leaf & All Dust tables; accessible table dated through 10 October

Price Averages at Major Auction Centers

Colombo (Sri Lanka)

In Colombo, the latest verified all-elevation public-auction average was $3.73/kg on 21 October, down $0.13/kg from 14 October ($3.86/kg), per Forbes & Walker.

Forbes & Walker’s Sale 42 reports the public-auction total at LKR 1,221.10/kg on 21 October and LKR 1,261.66/kg on 14 October.

Market Tone: Leafy teas from high and medium elevations generally eased, except for selected best descriptions; limited availability supported orthodox/rotovane BOP and BOPF.

North India (Kolkata / Siliguri / Guwahati)

In North India, the reporting-week CTC Leaf & All Dust average and change versus the preceding comparable observation remain unverified. Van Rees’s preceding report records no North India sale because of festival holidays.

Market Tone: Demand has returned in North India; stronger liquoring CTC teas attracted higher bids, while other descriptions generally held.

Mombasa (Kenya / East Africa)

In Mombasa, Van Rees’s broker-reported main and secondary auction average was $2.28/kg for Sale 43 on 26 October, ↓ −$0.01/kg versus Sale 42 on 19 October ($2.29/kg).

Van Rees’s 29 October report identifies Sale 43 and its overall main and secondary auction benchmark; the 22 October report supplies Sale 42 at 229 US cents/kg. Forbes & Walker’s international-market account maps Sale 43 to 26 October. The previous sale was 19 October.

Market Tone: Good general demand coexisted with mixed grade outcomes; the small aggregate decline does not describe every grade or origin.

Indonesia

Van Rees’s Week 44 Jakarta account reports auction behavior but no reproducible numerical aggregate. It combines discussion of orthodox and CTC teas; no weighted Jakarta/Medan CTC Leaf & Dust result was obtained. Neither selected grades nor the report’s chart supplies a sufficiently established replacement benchmark for this edition.

Market Tone: Jakarta had reduced offerings and pre-auction cancellations; the reported steady-to-firm descriptions do not establish an aggregate gain.

Benchmark Snapshot

Colombo — $3.73/kg, 21 October; ↓ −$0.13/kg versus 14 October ($3.86/kg); lagged, Forbes & Walker dollar series, single-source, not independently corroborated; Week 44 N/V — not verified.

North India — Week 44 CTC Leaf & All Dust regional aggregate and comparable change unavailable.

Mombasa — $2.28/kg, Sale 43, 26 October; ↓ −$0.01/kg versus Sale 42, 19 October ($2.29/kg); Van Rees broker-reported main and secondary auction series.

Market Direction

Mombasa’s broker average declined slightly, Colombo’s lagged comparison declined, and North India’s and Indonesia’s reporting-week aggregate directions remain unverified.

Liquidity

Jakarta’s unsold-invoice share rose from 14% to 46% in Van Rees’s 22 and 29 October reports; these counts do not measure kilogram clearance, while Mombasa’s separately reported 20.48% unsold lacks a sufficiently explicit denominator for direct comparison.

Sources: Forbes & Walker Sale 42 report, 27–28 October 2026, pp 1–2, 6, 13 and 18 | Forbes & Walker Sale 41 report, 20–21 October 2026, p 21, Mombasa Sale 42 date | Tea Board of India 2026 weekly CTC Leaf & All Dust tables; accessible table dated through 10 October | Van Rees Green Market Report, 29 October 2026, pp 1–3 | Van Rees Green Market Report, 22 October 2026, pp 1–2

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Financials & Costs

The Week 44 cost environment offered little currency relief against renewed energy exposure. CBSL’s indicative spot series, reproduced by Macro Lab, shows LKR 332.61 per USD on 30 October versus 332.03 on 23 October, a 0.17% depreciation; direct CBSL access was unavailable. CBK reported KES 129.96 per USD on 29 October versus 129.91 on 22 October, a 0.04% depreciation. ECB reference-rate crosses give INR 94.9552 per USD on 30 October versus 94.9451 on 23 October, a depreciation of about 0.01%. These are comparable dates within each series, not identical rate types across origins. Depreciation can raise local receipts from dollar sales while increasing imported-input or foreign-debt costs; contract currency and hedging determine the net effect.

CBK’s bulletin reported Murban crude at $110.46/barrel on 29 October versus $108.23 on 22 October, up $2.23; this is not a Brent futures comparison. A consistent weekly Brent pair and tea-route freight, insurance and lending quotations were not verified. A fixed delivery charge per kilo would take a larger share of a lower selling price, but actual margin changes require shipment costs. Mombasa’s small broker-price decline does not establish distressed selling, and the available clearance evidence cannot establish how financial pressure affected bids.

Sources: CBSL via Macro Lab USD/LKR indicative spot series, 23 and 30 October 2026; secondary reproduction | Central Bank of Kenya Weekly Bulletin, 30 October 2026, exchange rates and global trends | European Central Bank INR per EUR reference rates, 23 and 30 October 2026 | European Central Bank USD per EUR reference rates, 23 and 30 October 2026

Signals (Quarter)

The decisive checks are actual crop arrivals, buyer participation, accepted prices, and delivered costs.

FX dispersion — LKR weakened modestly while KES and the INR cross barely moved; reassess receipts and imported costs if these differences widen.

Auction clearance — Jakarta’s unsold invoices increased; obtain comparable kilogram sold/offered records before interpreting that change as a regional inventory build.

Crop trajectory — Sri Lankan crop intake was maintained despite rain in 20–26 October; watch measured arrivals before inferring a shortage.

Buyer concentration — Broker reports identify active buyers but no purchase shares; reduced participation would matter more than an unmeasured concentration claim.

Cost pressure — The World Bank expects elevated 2026 energy costs; confirm fuel contracts and freight quotations before raising delivered-tea budgets.

Continued buying may support selected teas, but wider supply or weaker acceptance could outweigh that support; cost exposure alone does not establish price strength.

Sources: Forbes & Walker Sale 42 report, 27–28 October 2026, pp 1–2, 6, 13 and 18 | Van Rees Green Market Report, 29 October 2026, pp 1–3 | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook release, 28 October 2026

Outlook (Six-Month Horizon)

Continued demand could sustain sought-after teas, while increased arrivals or weaker orders could depress realizations. The present evidence supports keeping those scenarios separate by origin and grade rather than setting a global numerical corridor.

The World Bank’s 28 October outlook projects Brent annual averages of $91/barrel in 2026 and $79 in 2027, assuming no major intensification of supply-related conflicts. These annual forecasts do not predict a six-month tea price or guarantee freight relief. Fuel contracts, shipping schedules and financing terms could delay any benefit. A fixed shipment charge spreads over kilograms shipped, while a percentage charge follows the invoice value; their effects on cheaper teas differ.

Structural Signals

Input costs — Forecast energy moderation offers possible relief; contract timing and unverified tea-specific input prices prevent an assured margin improvement.

Exporter discipline — Jakarta cancellations show withheld availability, but do not establish reserve-price resistance or a common exporter strategy across origins.

Retail pass-through — Tea-specific retail observations were not verified; test transmission against supplier contracts and shelf prices before assuming delayed repricing.

Risk Factors

FX shifts — Further LKR depreciation could change export receipts and imported costs; monitor matched spot observations and the firm’s actual settlement rate.

Freight disruption — Conflict-related energy exposure warrants route checks; revise landed costs when the carrier changes transit time, surcharges, or insurance terms.

Demand contraction — Falling repeat orders could weaken bids; monitor comparable clearance and buyer participation before extending the current demand assumptions.

Retain conditional purchasing plans until crop, orders and shipment costs clarify the balance; a sustained loss of buying interest would weaken the support scenario.

Sources: Van Rees Green Market Report, 29 October 2026, pp. 1–3 | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook release, 28 October 2026 | Central Bank of Kenya Weekly Bulletin, 30 October 2026, exchange rates and global trends

Dan is publisher, podcast host, and blogger. He is a frequent speaker at industry seminars and conferences (virtual and in-person). Dan was the first editor and publisher at World Tea News, worked as editor and publisher of Tea Magazine and managing editor of STiR coffee and tea. His work appears online and in many magazines. In 2016 he organized the collaborative group of tea journalists and experts who founded Tea Journey magazine and in 2021 he launched the Tea Biz podcast. He began his publications career in 1974 as a newspaper reporter.